Wednesday, January 16, 2008

One Week to Go Predictions!

With Oscar Nominations about a week away, everyone's shuffling around making their final predictions. I'm pretty sure these will not be mine but there might be a tweak or two before next week.

I've included Michael Clayton and come to terms with it. Every guild cited it and it should be considered a shoo-in at this point. I'm holding on to Atonement but The Diving Bell could garner way more #1 votes than it and slip into the race.

On the acting fronts, Depp has floundered for me especially after the BAFTA snub, (which I know doesn't matter here in America) but Depp is not completely out yet. Who would replace him if he is left off? I don't believe Gosling to make the cut, or Washington. I think Langella may make a play in the end.

I've given up on Marinca for 4 Months, 3 Weeks, 2 Days but that damn fifth spot is haunting me. I don't want Blanchett double nominated! (I know its not about me or what I want) I think Linney could make a play in the end or maybe even Keira if Atonement survives.

Supporting Actor and Actress stays the same for me. Actor seems pretty locked and loaded. Supporting Actress has a "fifth spot" thing going on there like Lead Actress. I choose Redgrave, others say Ronan, Dee, MacDonald (especially after BAFTA). Garner has a shot if they love voters love Juno.

Here are the moves:

Best Motion Picture
  1. Into the Wild
  2. No Country for Old Men
  3. There Will Be Blood
  4. Michael Clayton
  5. Atonement
  6. The Diving Bell & the Butterfly
  7. Juno
  8. Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
  9. American Gangster
  10. 3:10 to Yuma

Best Director

  1. Joel Coen & Ethan Coen-No Country for Old Men
  2. Sean Penn-Into the Wild
  3. Paul Thomas Anderson-There Will Be Blood
  4. Julian Schnabel-The Diving Bell & the Butterfly
  5. Joe Wright-Atonement
  6. Tony Gilroy-Michael Clayton
  7. Tim Burton-Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
  8. Ridley Scott-American Gangster
  9. Sidney Lumet-Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead
  10. Jason Reitman-Juno

Best Actor

  1. Daniel Day-Lewis-There Will Be Blood
  2. George Clooney-Michael Clayton
  3. Emile Hirsch-Into the Wild
  4. Viggo Mortensen-Eastern Promises
  5. Johnny Depp-Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
  6. Ryan Gosling-Lars and the Real Girl
  7. James McAvoy-Atonement
  8. Frank Langella-Starting Out in the Evening
  9. Denzel Washington-American Gangster
  10. Josh Brolin-No Country for Old Men

Best Actress

  1. Julie Christie-Away from Her
  2. Marion Cotillard-La Vie en Rose
  3. Ellen Page-Juno
  4. Angelina Jolie-A Mighty Heart
  5. Laura Linney-The Savages
  6. Cate Blanchett-Elizabeth: The Golden Age
  7. Anamaria Marinca-4 Months, 3 Weeks, 2 Days
  8. Keira Knightley-Atonement
  9. Amy Adams-Enchanted
  10. Nikki Blonsky-Hairspray

Best Supporting Actor

  1. Javier Bardem-No Country for Old Men
  2. Hal Holbrook-Into the Wild
  3. Casey Affleck-The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
  4. Tom Wilkinson-Michael Clayton
  5. Philip Seymour Hoffman-Charlie Wilson’s War
  6. Paul Dano-There Will Be Blood
  7. Tommy Lee Jones-No Country for Old Men
  8. Max Von Sydow-The Diving Bell & the Butterfly
  9. Ben Foster-3:10 to Yuma
  10. John Travolta-Hairspray

Best Supporting Actress

  1. Amy Ryan-Gone Baby Gone
  2. Catherine Keener-Into the Wild
  3. Cate Blanchett-I’m Not There
  4. Tilda Swinton-Michael Clayton
  5. Vanessa Redgrave-Atonement
  6. Kelly MacDonald-No Country for Old Men
  7. Saoirse Ronan-Atonement
  8. Ruby Dee-American Gangster
  9. Jennifer Garner-Juno
  10. Marisa Tomei-Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead

Best Original Screenplay

  1. Juno
  2. Michael Clayton
  3. The Savages
  4. Ratatouille
  5. Lars and the Real Girl
  6. Knocked Up
  7. Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead
  8. American Gangster
  9. Eastern Promises
  10. The Bucket List

Best Adapted Screenplay

  1. No Country for Old Men
  2. Into the Wild
  3. The Diving Bell & the Butterfly
  4. Zodiac
  5. There Will Be Blood
  6. Atonement
  7. Gone Baby Gone
  8. Charlie Wilson’s War
  9. Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
  10. The Kite Runner

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

Here are my predix:

Best Motion Picture
No Country, Into the Wild and There Will Be Blood are in. Diving Bell, Juno and Michael Clayton battle it out for the 4th and 5th slot. Any other movie in the Top 5 would be a surprise.

Best Director
The Coens, Sean Penn, PTA and Schnabel are in. In this category I see a battle for the last spot between Wright, Gilroy and Burton. I still hope Tim Burton makes it!
Scott or Lumet might benefit from a veteran bonus and pull off an upset!

Best Actor
The frontrunner is DDL. Clooney is in, just like Depp (if there is one lock for Sweeney Todd it's in this category). Viggo Mortensen will finally get a nom too, and the 5th slot is once more the newcomer slot - and this year it'll go to Emile Hirsch.

Best Actress
Christie, Cotillard and Page are locks. For the remaining two slots I predict Jolie and Blanchett.

Best Supporting Actor
Like in the Best Actor category I'm pretty sure about my line-up: Bardem, Affleck, Holbrook, Wilkinson and Hoffman.

Best Supporting Actress
Ryan, Blanchett, Keener and Swinton are in. Dee, Ronan, Redgrave and maybe MacDonald (only if the Academy really loves NCfOM) fight for the last slot.

Best Original Screenplay
Juno's got this Oscar pretty much sewn up already. The other nominees will be Ratatouille, Michael Clayton, The Savages and Lars or Knocked Up or BtDKYD.

Best Adapted Screenplay
The shoo-ins are No Country, Into the Wild, TWBB and Diving Bell. The last spot will go to either Gone Baby Gone, Charlie, Atonement or Zodiac.

Anonymous said...

Clayton, can you believe the Oscar nominations are almost here! Wow.

Anonymous said...

Here my predix:

Best Picture:
1. No country for old men
2. There will be blood
3. Juno
4. Directors' fight: The diving bell and the butterfly / Into the wild
5. Golden Globe winner: Atonement / Sweeney Todd

best Director:
1. Ethan & Joel Coen
2. Paul Thomas Anderson
3. Julian Schnabel
4. sean Penn
5. Tim Burton (I hope so)
Alt: Joe Wright

Best Actor:
1. Daniel Day-Lewis
2. George Clooney
3. Johnny Depp
4. Emile Hirsch
5. Viggo Mortensen
Alt: Ryan Gosling (But I don't think so)
Surprise factor: James McAvoy

Best Actress:
1. Julie Christie
2. Marion Cotillard
3. Ellen Page
4. Angelina Jolie
5. Cate Blanchett
Alt: amy Adams & Laura Linney
Surprise factor: Anamaria Manrica (If the snub of foreign category would be hard for forget)

Best Supporting Actor:
1. Javier BArdem
2. Casey Affleck
3. tom Wilkinson
4. Philip Seyomur Hoffman
5. Hal Holbrook
Alt: Tommy Lee Jones

Best Supporting Actress:
1. Cate bLanchett
2. Amy Ryan
3. TIlda Swinton
4. Saorsie Ronan
5. Kelly Macdonald (Only because for the impact of the film)
Alt: Catherine Keener or veterans (Dee and Redgrave)
Surprise factor: Samantha Morton and helena Bonham Carter (Remember the actress race of 2004)

Original Screenplay:
1. Juno
2. The Savages
3. Michael Clayton
4. Lars and the real girls
5. American gangster
Alt: Knocked up, Eastern promises or Ratatouille
Surprise: 4 months, 3 weeks, 2 days.

Adapted Screenplay
1. No country for old men
2. There will be blood
3. The diving bell and the butterfly
4. Into the wild
5. Atonement
Alt: Zodiac or Charlie Wilson's war
Surprise factor: persepolis or Away from her

Animated Picture:
1. Ratatouille
2. Persepolis (I wish this film win, because deserves the Oscar especially for the awful exclusion of foreign picture)
3. The Simpsons Movie
Alt: Bee movie (Ewwww!!!!)

Foreign Picture:
1. The counterfeiters (Austria)
2. The year than my parents went to vacations (Brazil)
3. The uknow woman (Italy)
4. Beaufort (Israel)
5. Katyn (Poland)
Alt: Days of darkness (Canada) or The trap (serbia)
Surprise: 12 (russia) Mongol (Kazakhstan)

Anonymous said...

Hey Clayton...so I'm absoloutley freaking out over Atonement's best pic nod. I think it was sumptuous, sweeping, and clearly will live up to its beauty for years to come. My question...do you REALLY think that voters are going to choose Into the Wild, which is all honesty, really depressing, and bypass a film like Atonement that is kind of sad, but has a huge, beatiful payoff? I'm crossing my fingers!!!